Geopolitical Risk
Decide before the situation decides for you.
When unrest, conflict or a sudden change of policy threatens your people and operations, the first reports are fast and often wrong. Our regional desks verify what is actually happening, measure it against your sites, routes and travelers, and tell you what it means in time to act.
- Crisis tasking
- First verified situation report within 2 hours, 24/7
- Assessments
- Country or market-entry assessment in 10 to 15 business days
- Coverage
- Six regional desks working in 41 languages
- Team
- Regional lead, country analysts, a geospatial analyst and the watch floor
- Deliverable
- Verified situation reports, decision briefs and scheduled assessments
- Pricing
- Fixed fee per assessment, or an annual program scoped to your footprint
When to call us
For the decisions that cannot wait for certainty.
Most organizations are not short of news. They are short of someone who can say which reports are true, how close they are to something that matters and what is likely to happen next.
Unrest near your sites
Protests, strikes, roadblocks and violence verified and plotted against facilities, staff housing and supply routes.
Travel and events
Route, venue and city intelligence before executives and teams travel, with live verification while they are on the ground.
Market entry and exit
Political, security, integrity and operational risk assessed before capital is committed or withdrawn.
Conflict and escalation
The observable signs that a tense situation is about to change, defined in advance and watched continuously.
Sanctions and policy shifts
New restrictions, expropriation risk and regulatory moves traced to their practical effect on your counterparties and contracts.
Evacuation and continuity
Verified information on airports, borders, roads and communications when people may need to move.
What you receive
A brief you can act on, not a thread of links.
Every product answers three questions: what is confirmed, how it affects your footprint and what we expect next. Unverified claims are labeled as unverified and never mixed with facts.
- Verified events with location, time and the evidence for each
- Distance and route impact for your named sites and travelers
- The claims we checked and found false, old or from somewhere else
- A forward view using probability terms from our fixed scale
- The indicators that would change the assessment, and who is watching them
- Options for security and operations leaders, with the trade-offs stated
How it runs
A standing watch, and a surge when it matters.
Programs are built around your footprint: the sites, routes, people and suppliers you name. In a crisis the regional desk and the watch floor work as one team until the situation is stable.
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01 / Footprint
Week 1
We load the locations and routes that matter into Aldervane Atlas and agree what you need to be told, how fast and by whom.
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02 / Baseline
Weeks 1 to 3
The regional desk writes a baseline assessment and defines the indicators that would signal a change for the worse.
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03 / Watch
Ongoing, 24/7
Events near your footprint are verified before they are reported. Critical developments reach you within 60 minutes, at any hour.
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04 / Surge
In a crisis
A dedicated cell issues verified situation reports at an agreed rhythm, starting within 2 hours, until you stand it down.
Tradecraft
How we know before we tell you.
Speed without verification moves people toward danger as often as away from it. These are the methods our desks use to confirm an event before a client acts on it.
- GeolocationFootage and photographs matched to terrain, buildings and signage to establish exactly where an event took place.
- ChronolocationShadows, weather, traffic and broadcast records used to establish when footage was filmed, and whether it is new.
- Source triangulationAn event is confirmed only when independent sources agree. Accounts that copy each other count once.
- Native-language monitoringLocal broadcasters, community channels and official statements read as they are published, by analysts who know the place.
- Imagery and sensor dataCommercial satellite imagery, fire detections, flight and vessel tracks and connectivity measurements that show what is happening without relying on anyone's account.
- Structured forecastingScenarios with probability terms and written indicators, reviewed afterward against what actually happened.
- Stakeholder mappingThe officials, companies, armed groups and community leaders whose decisions shape an environment, and how they are connected.
- Asset-aligned alertingEvents measured against your sites and routes in Aldervane Atlas, so relevance is decided by geography and impact, not by keywords.
Results
Verified in time to matter.
Client names are withheld and identifying details changed. The methods, timelines and outcomes are reported as they happened.
Energy
Six hours to decide
Viral footage showed unrest closing in on a remote site with 140 staff. Geolocation and native-language verification showed which claims were true and which road was open.
Government
Mapping a 1,900-account network before a national vote
Creation-date clustering, recycled images and a shared posting schedule exposed a commercial influence operation posing as local voters.
Questions
Geopolitical risk FAQ
How is this different from a news alert service?
An alert service tells you something has been reported. We tell you whether it is true, how close it is to something you care about and what we expect next. Across 2026, 38 percent of the viral claims our desks checked during fast-moving events proved false, old or from somewhere else.
How fast is a verified report?
For clients with a program in place, critical events near a named site are verified and escalated within 60 minutes. For crisis tasking, the first verified situation report is issued within 2 hours. When we cannot yet verify something important, we say so and tell you what we are doing to resolve it.
Do you have people on the ground?
Our analysts work from open sources in the languages of the places they cover, and many have lived and worked there. We do not run human sources or field agents. Where a decision needs eyes on the ground, we say so and work alongside the security provider you choose.
Can you support a decision to evacuate?
We provide the verified picture that decision depends on: what is confirmed, which routes are open and how the situation is likely to develop. The decision itself, and the movement of people, rests with you and your security provider.
Do you forecast?
Yes, carefully. Our assessments use the same fixed probability scale as our investigations and name the indicators that would prove us wrong. We review past forecasts against outcomes, and the method is set out in our article on event verification.
Can an assessment be tailored to one transaction or project?
Yes. Market-entry and project assessments are scoped to a specific decision and combine country risk with due diligence on the partners, officials and intermediaries involved.
Start an engagement
Bring us the question nobody else could answer.
Tell us what you need to know and why. A senior investigator will scope it with you, tell you candidly what open sources can and cannot establish, and propose a plan with a fixed fee and a firm timeline.